The prospect of a majority government led by the Scottish National Party pressing ahead with another independence referendum will alarm employers, investors and entrepreneurs across Scotland. For more than two decades, businesses have operated under recurring constitutional uncertainty, rising costs and an increasingly punitive tax environment. Higher business rates and the heaviest personal tax burden in the UK have left Scottish firms at a competitive disadvantage. At a time of fragile growth, stubborn inflation and intense global competition for capital, Scotland does not need another prolonged constitutional campaign.
The Cost of Uncertainty
Investment depends on stability. Long-term decisions about expansion, recruitment and inward investment require clarity about currency, regulation, taxation and market access. The mere prospect of a referendum causes companies to delay or divert investment. We saw this in 2014, when many firms adopted a “wait and see” approach. In today’s more economically strained environment, repeating that uncertainty would carry greater risks.
Unanswered Economic Questions
Fundamental issues remain unresolved. What currency would an independent Scotland use? How would fiscal sustainability be secured given the current deficit? What would happen to trade with the rest of the UK, Scotland’s largest export market? How would pensions and public services be protected during transition? These are practical questions affecting jobs, mortgages and living standards. Without detailed and credible answers, reopening the constitutional debate risks undermining economic confidence at precisely the wrong time. If a Labour Government at Westminster were to concede another referendum, it would prolong instability when focus should be on competitiveness and growth.
The Greens Are Not a “Soft Option”
At the last Holyrood election, some voters treated the Scottish Green Party list vote as a secondary or “soft” choice. That assumption is misplaced. The Greens advance one of the most left-wing programmes in Scottish politics and have shown a willingness to pursue economically disruptive policies. During their cooperation agreement with the Scottish National Party, the Deposit Return Scheme imposed significant costs before being abandoned. Proposed Highly Protected Marine Areas covering 10 per cent of Scottish waters threatened coastal livelihoods. Rent controls risked constraining housing supply, while restrictive short-term let licensing added burdens to the hospitality sector. Their target to reduce car use by 20 per cent by 2030 was widely regarded as unrealistic. Even the former First Minister, Humza Yousaf, ultimately ended the arrangement and removed Green ministers from office. Now co-leaders Ross Greer and Gillian Mackay are signalling demands for further tax rises and new wealth taxes as the price of future cooperation. A list vote for the Greens is therefore not symbolic. It could help deliver a pro-independence majority committed to renewed constitutional upheaval.
A clear Priority
Scotland’s priority must be economic recovery, productivity and competitiveness. Businesses generate employment and the tax revenues that fund public services. Undermining confidence ultimately harms communities and living standards. Stability is not a luxury. It is the foundation of prosperity. Scotland cannot afford another divisive referendum or policies that deter investment and weaken competitiveness. The focus should be on growth, resilience and restoring economic momentum, not reopening a constitutional battle the economy can ill sustain.
Struan Stevenson – Chief Executive